Key Insights
In 2025, global goods trade increased by 4.6%, driven by a surge in AI-related products and anticipatory imports by U.S. companies, despite the implementation of high U.S. tariffs.
The U.S. effective tariff rate rose from about 2% in early 2025 to 11% due to over 50 trade policy changes enacted under President Trump's administration.
Volkswagen CEO Oliver Blume acknowledged that the trade landscape changes are permanent, requiring extensive operational restructuring.
AI Analysis
In the coming months, trade tensions are likely to persist, with potential escalations depending on policy decisions by major economies. A base case s...
Market Outlook
Short-Term
In the short term, the global economy is expected to experience moderate growth, with trade tensions potentially leading to market volatility and supply chain disruptions. Specific catalysts include ongoing trade negotiations and policy changes in major economies.
Long-Term
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