Key Insights
In March 2026, the inflationary impact of rising oil and gas prices in emerging markets remained moderate, with an average inflation rate of 4.3%, up from 3.9% in February. This was largely due to the absence of contagion to agricultural and food prices.
Portfolio investment outflows from major emerging markets reached a record $70 billion in March 2026, with South Korea and Taiwan accounting for three-quarters of this figure. This suggests that financial stress from the energy shock was less significant than in 2022.
The conflict in Iran has driven oil prices above $100 per barrel, creating near-term pressure on oil-importing emerging economies while benefiting exporters. This situation has led to targeted portfolio changes in emerging markets.
AI Analysis
The current surge in oil prices is likely to continue impacting emerging markets negatively in the short term, with inflationary pressures and currenc...
Market Outlook
Short-Term
In the short term, the surge in oil prices is expected to exacerbate inflationary pressures in emerging markets, leading to potential currency depreciations and increased financial stress. The conflict in Iran, which has contributed to rising oil prices, may continue to influence these dynamics in the coming months.
Long-Term
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