Key Insights
Since late February 2026, global equities have declined, and bond yields have risen, driven by higher energy prices and inflation expectations.
Emerging market assets, particularly in commodity-importing economies, have been disproportionately affected by these developments.
Five main amplification channels identified include sovereign refinancing risk, emerging market capital-flow reversals, leverage in nonbank finance and hedge funds, private-credit fragility, and synchronized equity-and-bond selling.
AI Analysis
The global financial system faces heightened risks due to geopolitical tensions and economic vulnerabilities. If these issues persist, markets may exp...
Market Outlook
Short-Term
In the short term, markets may experience increased volatility due to geopolitical tensions and tightening financial conditions. Investors should monitor energy prices and inflation indicators closely.
Long-Term
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