Key Insights
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that oil production shut-ins related to the US-Iran conflict will rise to 9.1 million barrels per day (b/d) in April 2026, before decreasing to 6.7 million b/d in May as the conflict subsides. (spglobal.com)
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has described the current oil supply disruption as the largest in history, surpassing previous crises such as the 1970s oil shocks. (axios.com)
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the ongoing conflict has significantly disrupted global economic momentum and spurred inflation, leading to a reduction in the global growth forecast to 3.1% for 2026, down from 3.4% in 2025. (axios.com)
AI Analysis
The US-Iran conflict is expected to continue disrupting global oil supply chains in the near term, with potential for further price volatility and eco...
Market Outlook
Short-Term
In the short term, the conflict has led to significant oil production shut-ins, price surges, and broader economic challenges. The EIA estimates that oil production shut-ins related to the US-Iran conflict will rise to 9.1 million barrels per day (b/d) in April 2026, before decreasing to 6.7 million b/d in May as the conflict subsides. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a reduction in global oil supply, with the EIA forecasting a global inventory draw of 5.1 million b/d in the second quarter of 2026. These disruptions have resulted in significant increases in oil prices, with Brent crude reaching $115 per barrel in the second quarter of 2026, up from $79 per barrel a month prior. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the ongoing conflict has significantly disrupted global economic momentum and spurred inflation, leading to a reduction in the global growth forecast to 3.1% for 2026, down from 3.4% in 2025.
Long-Term
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