Key Insights
Nvidia reported fiscal Q4 revenue of $22.1 billion, up 265% year over year, with data center revenue of $18.4 billion up 409%, while fiscal Q1 guidance of about $24.0 billion still implied extraordinary growth but also established a tougher base effect for the next leg of the trade.
The company executed a 10-for-1 stock split effective June 2024 and announced a 150% dividend increase, moves that broadened retail accessibility but did not change the core institutional debate: whether earnings growth can continue to outpace valuation compression after a multi-hundred-percent share price advance since the start of 2023.
Microsoft said it expects fiscal 2025 capital expenditures to increase materially from fiscal 2024 levels, and Alphabet raised 2024 capex expectations to support AI infrastructure; that keeps the near-term demand backdrop constructive for Nvidia and semiconductor supply-chain beneficiaries despite investor concern about concentration risk.
AI Analysis
Base case: the AI trade remains fundamentally positive, but returns become less linear and less concentrated, with Nvidia still outperforming on earni...
Market Outlook
Short-Term
Over the next 1-3 months, the key catalysts are Nvidia's next earnings report, updates from Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta on AI capex pacing, and upcoming Fed decisions and inflation prints that will drive real yields. If Nvidia again clears revenue and gross-margin expectations while hyperscalers reaffirm spending, leadership can persist; if yields rise or management commentary points to digestion in accelerator demand, rotation into financials, industrials, equal-weight U.S. equities, and select small caps is likely to accelerate.
Long-Term
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