Key Insights
In May 2026, the Global PMI New Export Orders Index fell to 48.9, signaling a third consecutive month of declining trade volumes and the steepest decline since October 2025.
The outbreak of war in the Middle East has led to a sharp fall in services exports, with the steepest drop in financial services and consumer services since December 2020.
Approximately one-third of the world's busiest ports and airports are now exposed to a 'high' or 'very high' risk of disruption due to geopolitical tensions and natural hazards.
AI Analysis
The weakening of global trade resilience is likely to persist in the near term, with potential for further deterioration if geopolitical tensions esca...
Market Outlook
Short-Term
In the next 1-3 months, global trade is expected to experience continued contraction, particularly in services sectors, as geopolitical tensions persist. Key trade hubs may face operational challenges due to heightened risks, leading to delays and increased costs.
Long-Term
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