Key Insights
The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 74.9% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady in July 2026, with a 25.1% chance of a 25 basis point hike.
By September 2026, the probability of a rate hold decreases to 35.7%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point hike increases to 51.1%, and a 50 basis point hike stands at 13.1%.
The June 2026 U.S. jobs report showed a slowdown in job creation, with only 57,000 new positions added, well below economists' expectations of 115,000.
AI Analysis
The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain current interest rates in the near term, with a higher probability of rate hikes in September 2026. This cau...
Market Outlook
Short-Term
In the short term (1-3 months), the market anticipates the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates, with a 74.9% probability of no change in July 2026. This expectation is influenced by recent economic data, including a weaker-than-expected June jobs report, which may reduce immediate pressure on the Fed to raise rates. However, the market remains vigilant for any signs of inflationary pressures that could prompt a policy shift.
Long-Term
Recent News
Unlock the full Federal Reserve Rate Hike Expectations analysis
Get AI-powered insights, alerts, and market analysis for Federal Reserve Rate Hike Expectations and other topics you follow.
No credit card required