Turkey's March inflation data caught markets off guard — in a good way. Monthly inflation came in at 1.94%, well below the 2.40% consensus, pulling the annual rate down to 30.9%. For a country dealing with an ongoing regional conflict and elevated oil prices, that's a notable result.
What happened
The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) has been running an aggressive defense since the Iran conflict began five weeks ago. Three factors drove the inflation surprise:
Tighter effective funding. The CBRT has been funding the market at 40% — three percentage points above its official 37% policy rate. This stealth tightening helped keep the lira remarkably stable. The dollar gained only about 1.3% against the lira in March, making it one of the best-performing emerging market currencies during the crisis.
Massive reserve intervention. Total reserves dropped from $206 billion in late February to $155.3 billion by late March. That's roughly $50 billion deployed in a single month to absorb currency pressure. The CBRT also launched dollar-for-lira and dollar-for-gold swap auctions to manage demand.
Fiscal support on fuel. The government used its sliding-scale fuel tax system and reduced Special Consumption Tax revenues to prevent energy costs from spiking. Transport costs still rose 4.5%, but the damage was contained.
Why it matters
Turkey is one of the world's largest energy importers, which makes it especially vulnerable to oil price shocks. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and commodity prices stay elevated. The fact that inflation still came in below expectations shows the CBRT has tools — but those tools are expensive.
Citigroup now projects Turkey's end-2026 inflation at 29% and expects no rate change at the upcoming April meeting. But if reserve pressure continues or if domestic depositors start shifting toward dollars, further tightening is on the table.
Meanwhile, the BIST 100 index closed last week at 12,936, up 1.88%, and pushed higher to 13,112 as of Monday's close — suggesting equity investors are cautiously optimistic about the central bank's ability to manage the situation.
What to watch next
The next CBRT monetary policy meeting will be critical. Markets want to see whether the central bank can hold the line without burning through more reserves at this pace. If oil prices ease or a ceasefire materializes in the Iran conflict, that pressure lifts significantly. If not, the CBRT's reserve buffer — while still substantial — becomes a key vulnerability.
The lira's stability is also worth monitoring. A 1.3% monthly move against the dollar is manageable. A sudden jump would change the math for inflation and could force the CBRT's hand on rates.
Bottom line
Turkey pulled off an inflation surprise by spending aggressively from reserves and tightening behind the scenes. It worked — for now. The question is how long that defense holds if the conflict drags on and oil stays elevated.
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