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Brent crude fell more than 5% after reports that Washington sent a 15-point ceasefire proposal to Tehran. Here's what it means for markets and your wallet.
Oil prices plunged on Wednesday as diplomatic signals offered the first real glimmer of hope that the month-old US-Iran conflict might be moving toward negotiations.
Brent crude dropped more than 5% to around $98–99 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) — the US benchmark — fell to roughly $87–88. That's the first time Brent has dipped below $100 since the conflict began escalating in late February.
The catalyst: reports that the Trump administration delivered a 15-point ceasefire proposal to Tehran through Pakistan. Israeli media also reported that Washington is seeking a month-long ceasefire to open a window for broader negotiations. Adding momentum, Iran announced it would reopen the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz to "non-hostile" vessels — a significant shift after weeks of near-total closure of the waterway that handles roughly 20% of the world's oil shipments.
Just one day earlier, oil had surged nearly 5% after Tehran denied any engagement in talks and Saudi Arabia and the UAE signaled readiness to join a potential military confrontation. The whiplash captures just how fragile and headline-driven the market is right now.
Oil above $100 acts like a tax on the global economy. It raises fuel costs, pushes up transportation expenses, and feeds into inflation — exactly what central banks have been trying to cool for the past two years. A sustained move back below $100 would ease some of that pressure, particularly for oil-importing economies like Turkey, India, and much of Europe.
For equity markets, the reaction was immediate. Global stocks rallied on the news, with investors interpreting the diplomatic push as a sign that the conflict may have a ceiling. The software sector, already down 23% in 2026 on AI disruption fears, got a modest lift alongside broader risk appetite.
But it's important to keep perspective. The Strait of Hormuz is only partially reopening. The 82nd Airborne is being deployed to the region. And Iran has not formally accepted the US proposal. Prices could snap back just as fast as they fell.
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Oil below $100 is a relief, but it's built on hope rather than a deal. Markets are trading on headlines, and the situation can reverse with a single statement from Tehran or Washington. Watch the diplomacy, not just the price.